Pakistan's ruling party poised to win Kashmir elections amid deadly clashes, analysts say
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A man votes during the second phase of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Legislative Assembly elections at a polling station in Karachi, Pakistan, August 2, 2026. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
LAHORE, Aug 12 - Pakistan's ruling party appeared poised to win a majority in Pakistan-administered Kashmir's local assembly, even as some of the most closely watched constituencies had yet to vote amid deadly unrest.
The Pakistan Muslim League (N) had secured 25 seats in the 53-seat assembly as of Wednesday, but was widely expected by analysts to win more constituencies in at least two further rounds of voting, and be granted additional reserved seats.
The elections had been scheduled to be held in three rounds between late July and August 10. But mounting security concerns led to the postponement of voting in seven constituencies from Monday to a date yet to be determined.
Irregularities on Monday also prompted a separate rerun of voting in 23 polling stations in two constituencies that is scheduled for Saturday.
The Kashmir vote has been marred by deadly clashes that have prompted road closures and an internet blackout.
CHALLENGES AHEAD
The unrest is set to overshadow the formation of the region's next government, analysts said.
The PML-N has benefited from a longstanding rule that mandates 12 seats for constituencies representing what the regional constitution defines as refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir. These seats — which were largely won by the PML-N — have become a flashpoint in Pakistani politics over the last few months. Kashmiri protesters say the seats have too often been filled by people living elsewhere in Pakistan who have little regard for the region's economic struggles.
The PML-N did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Following the first round of voting in late July, a group of protesters — the Joint Awami Action Committee — said more than 30 people had been killed around one town, Rawalakot, in clashes with security forces within two days. Pakistani authorities denied that death toll and characterised the protesters as India-backed militants.
Reuters was unable to independently verify how many people had died.
The combined weight of electoral, political, economic and security issues in the region will burden the incoming regional government, said political analyst Hasan-Askari Rizvi. With the PML-N's victory likely depending on the refugee seats that protesters want to abolish, the incoming government is ill-equipped to mediate, he said.
The region “will remain at boiling point," said Rizvi.
POLITICAL CLASHES
The region's political crisis goes beyond the demands of regional protesters.
The country's main opposition party, the Imran Khan-founded Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, won the last regional elections in 2021, but boycotted this year's vote over electoral fraud concerns.
This left Pakistan's other two big parties — the PML-N and the Pakistan Peoples Party, which are allied on the national stage — to run against each other.
The PPP has so far secured 12 seats — fewer than expected, for which PPP leaders have blamed the PML-N, accusing it of vote rigging. The PML-N has rejected those accusations.
Local election commission official Raja Shakeel told Reuters that there were no major irregularities in the voting process.
The most sensitive votes in the multi-round election are likely still ahead, analysts said, as residents in the protest hubs of Rawalakot and Sudhnoti have yet to cast their ballots. REUTERS
